The predictive value of ventricular wall motion score and GRACE score for the prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infaction
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摘要: 目的:探讨室壁运动积分(WMS)与全球急性冠状动脉事件注册(GRACE)评分对急性心肌梗死(AMI)患者12个月主要不良心血管事件(MACE)的预测效力。方法:连续入选住院的AMI患者237例,发病24 h内检测WMS,同时计算GRACE评分。随访12个月,记录MACE发生情况。MACE定为心因性死亡、再发非致命性心肌梗死、严重心力衰竭、恶性心律失常。结果:237例入选患者中,发生MACE 68例,其WMS和GRACE评分均高于非MACE患者(P<0.001)。COX风险回归分析显示,WMS和GRACE评分均是AMI患者12个月MACE发生的独立预测因子(P<0.001)。WMS预测12个月MACE发生的ROC曲线下面积为0.865,GRACE评分预测面积为0.731,两者联合预测面积为0.920。结论:WMS及GRACE评分均是AMI患者12个月 MACE的独立预测指标,且两者联合使用可明显提高预测效力。Abstract: Objective: To compare the prediction value of ventricular wall motion score (WMS) and global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) score for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in recent 12 months in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Method: Two hundred and thirty-seven hospitalized AMI patients were included. Cardiac ultrasound was performed to detect WMS within 24 hours, GRACE score was also evaluated. During the 12-month follow-up period, the occurrence of MACE was recorded. The MACE consists of psychogenic death, recurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction, severe heart failure (NYHA 3-4), malignant arrhythmia (sustained ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation, highly atrioventricular block). Result: Sixty-eight cases were along with MACE. The WMS and GRACE score were higher in patients with MACE than those without MACE (P<0.001). COX regression analysis showed that the WMS and GRACE score were both independent predictors of MACE in the recent 12 months. The prediction effect of WMS ROC curve area was 0.867 and GRACE score was 0.731, the combination of WMS and GRACE score was 0.919.Conclusion: WMS and GRACE score are independent predictors of MACE in patients with AMI in the recent 12 months, the combined application of WMS and GRACE score can significantly improve the prediction effect.
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